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U.S. Financial Stress Score i

How close the U.S. financial system is to a point where policymakers are forced to act.
0255075100
68/100 (falling, accelerating)
Restrictive Policy
↓ -6 vs last reading (74)
Persistent Restrictive Policy
Phase 1 of 3
Stress Building
  • Long-end yields parked near 5 % despite softer oil
  • ON RRP usage stuck near de-minimis ($0.23 bn) – reserve cushion thin
  • Spot Bitcoin & Ether ETFs flip to >$1 bn net outflow – risk appetite fading
  • Stablecoin supply contracts another ~4 % over 30 d
The score measures pressure. Controlled Break Risk measures odds of dysfunction. Liquidity Response Probability measures odds of policy intervention — these can move independently.
Controlled Break Risk
30% ↓ (falling, accelerating)
Energy price relief and stable credit shave tail risk., was 34%
Liquidity Response Probability
35% ↓ (falling, accelerating)
Lower energy stress and calm funding reduce odds of imminent policy support., was 38%
BTCCONFIRMING
$1.16 bn ETF outflow over three days aligns with restrictive macro; price slid to ~$77 k.
Market Confirmation 40%
▼ ETF flows -$1.1B (5d) · -$1.2B (30d)
ETHMIXED
ETF outflows and lagging price leave ETH a weak signal.
Market Confirmation 25%
▼ ETF flows -$364M (5d) · -$1.7B (30d)
XRPOPTIONAL BRIDGE
Ripple projects $900 m run-rate but only a fraction settles via XRP; corridor volumes steady.
Utility 30%
Optional bridge
Mixed flow composition
ETF flows -$1M (5d) · -$2M (30d)
What would move the score next: Nov 8-10 coupon auctions (3-,10-yr)
Not investment advice. This score reflects an AI-driven research and synthesis process; it is provided for informational purposes only.

Score Over Time

The published score across recent evaluations.
0255075100 Sep 3: 3Sep 3: 62Sep 4: 60Sep 4: 64Sep 5: 64Sep 6: 62Sep 7: 63Sep 8: 63Sep 9: 62Sep 10: 68Sep 11: 68Sep 12: 72Sep 13: 73Sep 14: 71Sep 15: 74Sep 16: 73Sep 17: 74Sep 18: 73Sep 19: 74Sep 20: 74Sep 21: 73Sep 22: 71Sep 23: 74Sep 24: 74Sep 25: 74Sep 26: 75Sep 27: 74Sep 28: 70Sep 29: 75Sep 30: 75Oct 1: 77Oct 2: 77Oct 3: 78Oct 4: 79Oct 5: 78Oct 6: 77Oct 7: 78Oct 8: 74Oct 9: 75Oct 10: 75Oct 11: 78Oct 12: 78Oct 13: 79Oct 14: 78Oct 15: 77Oct 16: 76Oct 17: 78Oct 18: 78Oct 19: 78Oct 20: 79Oct 21: 79Oct 22: 79Oct 23: 74Oct 24: 75Oct 25: 75Oct 26: 75Oct 27: 75Oct 28: 75Oct 29: 75Oct 30: 73Oct 31: 72Nov 1: 72Nov 2: 72Nov 3: 70Nov 4: 70Nov 5: 68 Sep 3Sep 17Oct 4Oct 20Nov 5

Personal Liquidity Exposure

An ungated, transparent stress-sensitivity derivative of the upstream U.S. Financial Stress Score.
Waiting for the current U.S. Financial Stress Score…
Informational stress sensitivity only; this personal derivative is not the upstream U.S. Financial Stress Score and is not investment advice.

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Sub-Engine Breakdown

How each domain is contributing to the headline score.
Treasury Market Stress
60%
Yields drift lower and auctions orderly.
Funding Market Stress
35%
RRP usage negligible; SOFR steady.
Fed / Treasury Response
20%
No facilities tapped; routine operations only.
AI Economic Impulse
55%
inflationary
Ongoing multi-billion AI capex (Amazon $220 bn 2026 spend) keeps impulse elevated.
Energy System Stress
60%
Brent plunge below $100 materially eases near-term fuel strain.
Global Liquidity
40%
Dollar index hits one-month low; no new BOJ action.

Facts, Interpretation & Speculation

What's measured, what it implies, and what's explicitly flagged as lower-confidence.
Observed Facts
  • The 10-year Treasury yields ~4.96 % and the 30-year ~5.33 %, still historically elevated.
  • The Fed’s overnight reverse-repo facility absorbed just $230 million on Nov 4 2026, near record lows.
  • SOFR fixed at 3.97 % on Nov 3 2026, broadly steady over the past month.
  • Brent crude settled at $94.62 a barrel on Nov 4 2026, its lowest close in two months.
  • ICE BofA US High-Yield OAS was 3.62 % on Nov 3 2026, showing no sign of credit stress.
  • The US Dollar Index closed at 101.5 on Nov 4 2026, a one-month low.
  • US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $1 billion in net outflows in early November.
  • Total USD-denominated stablecoin supply has fallen roughly 4 % over the past 30 days.

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